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Aviation Update: 11th December, 2022


We would like to thank you for your very positive feedback on our weekly update and will continue to add more diverse content in future editions.


As a result of publishing some of our non confidential project pipeline we have managed to engage a lot of aviation talent across the continent and we will working closely with our new colleagues on more industry value add projects into the new year. Our project pipeline is the busiest that it has ever been - since our inception in 2008, a testament to the team and worthy recognition of dre aviation and its value adding solutions to the African market.


Watch this space for exciting updates and possible recruitment and JV opportunities in the next six to twelve weeks.


As ever, should you wish us to initiate coverage in any area of interest or would like to contribute to the weekly updates, kindly get intouch with us at commercial@dreaviationconsulting.com


We also welcome any feedback to any of our topics covered and would appreciate your insights.


Whilst we bring you news and analysis of the happenings in the industry we give you a leading insight on our opinions and advisory on specific topics and we hope that you find these useful in your day to day role and decision making process.


Africa


Nigeria Air suffered another set back this week as the Federal Government failed in it's appeal to rescind the injunction to prevent the launch of the carrier. However, the next hearing on the case has been brought forward to 16th January, 2022 from the 13th February, 2022. If the Federal Government are successful in overturning the AON driven challenge then we could see the carrier being established during the current government's administration. Any further delays in getting approval to launch during this administration will most likely see the end of this initiative in it's present form under this government.


The Africa Civil Aviation Commission paid a working visit to the ECOWAS Commission in Abuja earlier this week. The delegation was led by Mrs. Adefunke Adeyemi, the Secretary General as they visited to H.E. Dr. Omar Alieu Touray, on the 8th December. They discussed deepening cooperation between the two organisations. President Touray highlighted that the Air Transport is important and key to Integration, hence, the need to open the airspaces and encourage competition. The ACAC, according to Mrs. Adefunke Adeyemi, facilitates safe, secure, and environmentally friendly aviation industry.


Rwanda to become second African country (after Egypt) to sign ASA with Nepal. Another step forward in increasing African connectivity to other emerging markets.


SAA have relaunched their Johannesburg to Windhoek route; the route was axed as part of SAA's financial restructuring exercise, coupled with the drop off in demand due to Covid. It's good to see SAA reinstating routes and getting financially sound. There is a long way to go but these are welcome steps in SAA's recovery and to pan Africa connectivity.


Zimbabwe expects increased traffic and frequencies across its airports. To improve the country’s major aviation infrastructure, the Victoria Falls and the Joshua Mqabuko Nkomo airports were upgraded to international standards, and both can now handle 1.5 million and 1.2 million passengers annually respectively.


The country’s biggest airport, the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International, is also being upgraded to increase its passenger capacity to six million people per year. Civil Aviation Authority of Zimbabwe (CAAZ) director general Engineer Elijah Chingosho on Thursday said Zimbabwe was poised to attract more airlines.


“To help attract more traffic into the country, there are joint marketing efforts by various stakeholders such as the Airports Company of Zimbabwe, the local airlines, the National Handling Companies, CAAZ and the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority. With these and other efforts, the number of airlines flying into the country is expected to increase,” he said.


“Some of the current airlines flying into Zimbabwe are expected to expand their operations through using larger aircraft or increasing frequency of services.”


The 14 international airlines flying into the country include Air Botswana, Airlink, Air Tanzania, Emirates Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines, Eurowings Discover, Kenya Airways, LAM Mozambique Airlines, KLM (Cargo), MackAir, Malawian Airlines, RwandAir, South African Airways, and Qatar Airways.


Nigerian Minister for Aviation, Hon; Hadi Sarika, this week signed the ASA for bilateral traffic rights between Nigeria and the Seychelles. It's too early to see if the route will actually be flown as both countries need adequate carriers to perform the operations, as this stage we envisage no take up but its a step in the right direction.


Nigeria's Cally Air resumed services this week following the resumption of Aero Contractors flight operations. The increased connectivity has been welcomed by the passenger community and travel agents alike as increased fares bring much needed competition during the upcoming Christmas and New Year period.


Asia


Air India is expected to place an order for up to 500 aircraft, a transaction expected in the region of $100 billion. This as the Tata Group continue to forge ahead with the merger of Air India and Vistara. It is rumoured that the new carrier will be a major competitor to some of the world's largest legacy carriers. We believe competition is healthy and will bring more synergy and needed competition, especially on some Asian routes. The post Covid bounce continues and demand has already recovered to pre Covid levels and is growing nicely.


Vietnam Airlines reinstates Hanoi to Hong Kong sectors. Flight VN593 of Vietnam Airlines departed from Hong Kong to Hanoi on the afternoon of December 11th, marking the first regular flight between the two sides after nearly 3 years of interruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, the national flag carrier will re-operate the route with a frequency of three round-trip flights per week on Mondays, Wednesdays and Sundays. Vietnam Airlines is the first Vietnamese carrier to reopen regular commercial flights with Hong Kong.


COMAC has delivered its first C919 to China Eastern airlines, the aircraft manufacturer has confirmed. We are closely watching developments at COMAC and believe that the C919 type will bring increased competition for the single isle aircraft market, COMAS has the potential to shakeup the Boeing and Airbus dominance and would revolutionise the current aircraft lease and purchase market.




We are following the 1 pilot debate closely, here is an excellent video which sheds some more light on the subject:



Europe


An extreme cold snap, which is expected t0 last until the end of next week has hit Europe and has resulted in flight disruptions due to freezing fog. This is hitting European air travel at the critical seasonal high season and will no doubt affect carrier financials for Q3 2022.


easyJet announce more routes from the UK to Europe, intensifying competition and boosting connectivity, the new routes are:


  • London Luton to Murcia up to three times a week from 1 April 2023 with fares starting from £31.99*

  • Bristol to Enfidha up to twice a week from 27 March 2023 with fares starting from £28.99*

  • Birmingham to Milan up to three times a week from 26 June 2023 with fares starting from £28.99*

  • Manchester to Murcia up to twice a week from 28 March 2023 with fares starting from £28.99*

  • Liverpool to Corfu once a week from 4 June 2023 with fares starting from £26.99*

  • Edinburgh to Catania up to twice a week from 2 June 2023 with fares starting from £31.99*

  • Glasgow to Porto up to twice a week from 31 March 2023 with fares starting from £29.99*

  • Jersey to Amsterdam up to twice a week from 1 April 2023 with fares starting from £24.99*

  • Belfast to Rhodes up to twice a week from 3 June 2023 with fares starting from £37.99*

Competitive fares indeed....


dre aviation are pleased to announce that we have established a commercial sales relationship with Volotea airlines, you may learn more about the carrier by clicking here. We are working on developing the relationship and would like to see them them expand further into the African market, they currently serve Morocco and the Algiers at present.


Italian Airline ‘Neos’ announces flights to Pakistan, the carrier plans to operate charter flight initially, with services between Milan and Lahore. Competitive fares are expected and if the charter operations are successful, the carrier may increase frequencies and establish scheduled operations. *Disclosure: dre aviation have an existing commercial relationship with Neos.


BA Euroflyer close to launch:



Middle East


As we reported last week, Etihad have now confirmed that they will bring 4 of their preserved A380 aircraft back into service in time for the S2023 season, this confirms the trend we are seeing of passenger demand recovering and airlines are ramping up capacity globally.


The Americas


LATAM airlines domestic pilots are threatening industrial action unless their pre-pandemic contract conditions are re-established. The fifty air professionals this week announced an “non-yielding” position since as happened with other LATAM unions and officials, they are intent in recovering pre-pandemic benefits. They also recalled that during the pandemic period domestic pilots suffered income cuts, elimination of benefits and their number was drastically cut. When the pandemic was over, or rather things were considered to be back to normal, there was a non written understanding that previous conditions would be recovered, “but so far none of that has happened”. As no agreement was reached with the company, Chilean law establishes a period of mandatory negotiations or dialogue which will extend from next Monday until December 30. “The following day workers are entitled to consider a strike if no agreement has been reached”.


Word on the street is that United Airlines will announce a major contract award to Boeing for a sizeable amount of Boeing 787s as early as the coming week.


Delta reaches tentative deal with it's pilots to avert a potentially crippling strike as we reported last week. CNBC reports:

The question is, what are the knock on effects for the industry globally? More so, can we expect aviation wage price inflation in Africa?


Current Business Development Opportunities with dre aviation:


dre aviation has launched Aviation Insurance Services for it's esteemed aviation clients in Nigeria via our partners registered with the Lloyds of London insurance market and GreenLeaf Insurance Brokers (Nigeria). This adds another bow to the SMARTER PROCUREMENT programme launched by dre aviation whereby we help airlines cut their cost base by buying smarter via our synergy based buying strategy. See our launch video below:



We are looking for Country Managers in Zambia and Namibia, interested industry colleagues please get intouch via Linkedin.


We are now able to offer Cargo GSA solutions in the USA, any party wishing to partner in marketing these services should get intouch.


dre aviation have been awarded a private client airline due diligence exercise in West Africa, as a result, we are sourcing an aviation anlayst to join the team. He/she must have operated in the industry for atleast 20 years and must have deep practical knowledge of commercial aviation, the role involves travel across the region so a flexible diary is essential. Experience of financial business cases and financial planning would be a distinct advantage.




Wishing you a good week ahead.




dre aviation


London


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